Wednesday, August 29, 2012

USD/CHF Wave Analysis for August 29,2012

USD/CHF Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/CHF pair was trading in a downward move developing impulsive 5 wave (coloured purple) of the bigger wave 3 (coloured blue). During the European and New York sessions we could observe a descending movement from 0.9626 towards the 0.9547 level and we can consider this move as the end of the (1) wave (coloured black) of the bigger 5 wave (coloured purple). At the moment this major pair is developing corrective (2) wave (coloured blue) and we are expecting to see continuation of the bearish mood today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9798-0.9699-0.9767), with Take Profit at 0.9416 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation point at 0.9635 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the CHF KOF Economic Barometer and U.S. Prelim GDP q/q, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, Beige Book data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9439 (S2) 0.9493 (S1) 0.9526 (PP) 0.9580 (R1) 0.9613 (R2) 0.9667 (R3) 0.9700

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9560 with Stop Loss 0.9635 and Take Profit 0.9416 are recommended.

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