Wednesday, August 29, 2012

EUR/USD Ready for 1.2000 - Weekly Wave Analysis

EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move like we expected, but if we take another look, we will come to a conclusion that corrective 4 wave is not over, so, there is no much change in our wave count. Yesterday during the early Asian session this major pair found support at 1.2465 level and we could observe a strong ascending move towards the 1.2575 level (3 days high). At the moment the EUR/USD pair is developing final 5 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (C) wave (coloured green) and we are expecting to see price around 1.2000 level when the development of the final (5) wave (coloured orange) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets by measuring wave 1, with Take Profit 1 at 1.9964 (138.2% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.1884 (161.8% of wave 1) To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1.2700 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Prelim GDP q/q, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, Beige Book and EU German Prelim CPI m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2383 (S2) 1.2424 (S1) 1.2494 (PP) 1.2535 (R1) 1.2605 (R2) 1.2646 (R3) 1.2716

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.2520 with Stop Loss 1.2700, Take Profit 1 1.9964, and Take Profit 2 1.1884 are recommended.

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