Friday, August 31, 2012

AUD/USD Weekly Wave Analysis

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
For the last 2 weeks the AUD/USD pair was trading in a strong downward move, developing corrective wave A (coloured green) of the bigger wave (E) (coloured orange). Yesterday during the early European session we could observe an ascending movement towards the 1.0397 level (new daily high). Therefore, at the beginning of the New York session this currency pair did not manage to hold this level and the price pushed lower reaching a 1.0347 level. At the moment the AUD/USD pair is trading around 1.0328 level and we are expecting to see the price around 0.9825 level in a few weeks. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave E retraces 61.8% of the wave C, we can define the potential targets by measuring wave C, with Take Profit 1 at 0.9974 (50% of wave C) and Take Profit 2 at 0.9824 (61.8% of wave C) To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 1.0410 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Prelim GDP q/q, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, Beige Book and EU German Prelim CPI m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0283 (S2) 1.0315 (S1) 1.0332 (PP) 1.0364 (R1) 1.0381 (R2) 1.0413 (R3) 1.0430

Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0315 with Stop Loss 1.0410, Take Profit 1 0.9974 and Take Profit 2 0.9824 are recommended.

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