Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Dollar up versus yen, analysts see scope for more gains

* U.S. retail sales surprise on upside, U.S. yields jump
* Euro edges up but stays within recent ranges
* U.S. industrial output, CPI due later in the day
By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a one-month high against the yen on Wednesday after upbeat U.S. retail sales data the previous day dampened talk of monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve.
A broad-based rise in retail sales led some analysts to the view that the slowdown in U.S. economic growth during the second quarter will prove temporary, prompting a jump in U.S. Treasury yields.
The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 78.999 yen, its strongest since mid-July. Traders said it could extend its gains if it rises beyond reported stop-loss buy orders at 79.05 yen.
Later in the day, the market will get the latest reading on U.S. consumer inflation and industrial output. Price pressure is expected to remain benign, while industrial production is forecast to accelerate a touch from the previous month.
The forecast-beating U.S. data eased worries about the global economic outlook, helping the euro edge higher against the safe-haven yen and keeping it steady against the dollar.
But the euro stayed stuck within its recent ranges, with investors wary of selling it aggressively due to the prospect of European Central Bank restarting a bond-buying programme to curb high Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.
On the other hand, worries about a weak euro zone economy and the bloc's debt crisis made market participants reluctant to buy the euro except when cutting back on bets on it falling.
"People are finding it hard to get inspired by the newsflow. Knowing that the euro zone debt situation is not OK makes them wary of buying the euro," said Niels Christensen, currency strategist at Nordea.
The euro was flat at $1.2322, holding well above a two-year low of $1.2042 hit in late July but staying below last week's one-month high of $1.2444.
It was up 0.2 percent at 97.22 yen.
DOLLAR BUOYED VERSUS YEN
Analysts said the dollar could eke out more gains in the near term, supported by waning expectations the Fed would launch another round of bond-buying, or quantitative easing, as early as September.
"It wouldn't be a surprise to see the dollar rise to 80 yen by the end of the month," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist Japan for Barclays Capital in Tokyo.
The improved U.S. data also contrasted with figures last week showing Japan's economy expanded by just 0.3 percent between April and June, half the pace expected.
"It's a double effect for the yen, with poor Japanese GDP numbers and good numbers from the U.S., but it's not a massive move. We are getting used to having dollar/yen move in tiny ranges," said Nordea's Christensen.
Dollar gains may be stemmed by the potential for fund repatriation by Japanese institutional investors over the course of August, analysts and traders said.
August typically sees a large number of bond redemptions in U.S. Treasuries as well as coupon payments, and Japanese investors holding Treasuries might sell the dollar against the yen to bring home some of the proceeds.
The dollar index edged up 0.1 percent to 82.548, pulling away from a low of 82.041 reached early last week.
The higher-yielding Australian dollar fell, trading down 0.4 percent at $1.0463, hurt after Moody's ratings agency said it might eventually downgrade the credit ratings of some Australian states.

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