EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis (August 23, 2012)

The spot rate has tested yesterday the upper limit of medium term bullish channel and demonstrated a decline. It is currently testing now the intermediate support of its channel at 98.10 suggesting a rebound. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and reach the lower limit of its channel at 96.40.

Technical indicators provide buy signals and approach overbuy zone supporting a decline and until the support is not broken, the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the upper band strengthens the upper limit of its channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.

As the spot rate tests its support, we suggest 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound where we recommend a buy on the level of 98.10 with the 1st objective at 98.70 and then at 98.90. A breakthrough of 97.90 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its support where we advise a “sell stop”. We recommend to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 98.10 with the 1st objective at 97.50 and then at 97.30. A breakthrough of 98.30 will invalidate this scenario.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis (August 23, 2012)

As we predicted yesterday, the gold broke the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel and initiated a more violent medium term bullish channel. It tests now the upper limit of this one at 1,671. A break of these levels will release good potential and initiate a more violent bullish channel.

Technical indicators provide buy signal but approach overbuy zone supporting a decline and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the gold broke the superior band supporting the hypothesis of a break of its resistance.

As gold tests the upper limit of its channel, we suggest 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend selling on the level of 1,671 with the 1st objective at 1,660 and then at 1,657. A breakthrough of 1,674 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. We recommend to buy the gold as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1,671 with the 1st objective at 1,682 and then at 1,685. A breakthrough of 1,668 will invalidate this scenario.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis (August 23, 2012)

The spot rate broke yesterday the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel initiating a more violent bullish channel and currently is testing the intermediate resistance of this one at 1.5930. A break of these levels will allow it to reach the upper limit of its channel at 1.6020.

Technical indicators provide sell signal and approach overbuy zone supporting a decline and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the spot rate broke the superior band supporting the hypothesis of a break of its resistance.

As the spot rate tests its resistance, we suggest 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend selling at the level of 1.5930 with the 1st objective at 1.5870 and then at 1.5850. A breakthrough of 1.5950 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. We recommend to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.5930 with the 1st objective at 1.5990 and then at 1.6020. A breakthrough of 1.5910 will invalidate this scenario.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis (August 23, 2012)

After violent bullish movements of these days the spot rate is currently testing the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.2560. A break of these levels will release good potential and initiate a violent bullish trend.

Technical indicators provide sell signals and approach overbuy zone supporting a decline and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase of these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. Furthermore, the upper band strengthens the upper limit of its channel supporting the hypothesis of a violent movement in case of failure.

As the spot rate tests its resistance, we suggest 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we recommend selling at the level of 1.2560 with the 1st objective at 1.2500 and then at 1.2480. A breakthrough of 1.2580 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop”. We recommend to buy the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.2560 with the 1st objective at 1.2620 and then at 1.2640. A breakthrough of 1.2540 will invalidate this scenario.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis (August 16, 2012)

The spot rate tested this week the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel at 1.2390 and declined. It is testing now the intermediate support of this one at 1.2260 and seems to initiate a rebound. However, a break of these levels would release a significant potential and enable the lower limit of its channel at 1.2210.

Technical indicators do not provide clear signal but until the support is not broken, the assumption of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Moreover, the inferior band strengthens the intermediate support of its channel suggesting a more violent movement in case of break.

The spot rate tests its support that is why we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a rebound. In this case we recommend a buy on the level of 1.2260 with the 1st objective at 1.2320 and then at 1.2340. A break through 1.2240 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is the hypothesis of a break of its support, here we recommend a “sell stop”. We suggest to sell the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its support of 1.2260 with the 1st objective at 1.2200 and then at 1.2180. A breakthrough 1.2280 will invalidate this scenario.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook (August 15, 2012)

AUDUSD: Last week I wrote “the pair’s exhaustion above 1.0600 (failure to see a daily close above said level) has stoked a pullback, and with a fundamental catalyst (Chinese worries), near-term price action is biased lower.” Prices continue to consolidate, and it very much appears that a Top is being formed on the 4-hour charts. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0535/45 (former swing highs), 1.0580, 1.0600/15 and 1.0630. Daily support comes in at 1.0480/1.0500 (last week’s low), 1.0435/45, and 1.0380/85.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook (August 15, 2012)

GBPUSD: Last week I wrote “the muddle sideways continues, leaving little changed of our outlook for the GBPUSD. Overall, our outlook unchanged from Monday [August 6]. With the ascending trendline off of the July 12 and July 25 lows holding, our bias is neutral. A daily close below 1.5580/85 (50-DMA) would be bearish, whereas a close below 1.5490/1.5520 would be very bearish (as it would represent a break of the channel as well as last week’s lows).” Our view remains. Near-term resistance is 1.5700/05 (August high), 1.5720 (200-DMA), and 1.5755/70 (July high, 100-DMA). Daily support is 1.5620/25 (10-DMA, 20-DMA) 1.5575/80, 1.5490/1.5520, then 1.5450/60 (July 25 low).

USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (August 15, 2012)

USDJPY: A pattern long in the making, the USDJPY Inverse Head & Shoulder formation that has been in wait-and-see mode remains valid so long as the Head at 77.60/70 holds. Indeed, it has, and after the Fed meeting and the July Nonfarm Payrolls two-weeks ago and the disappointing second quarter Japanese GDP this week, the USDJPY is constructive in the neat-term, fundamentally. Accordingly, with the Head at 77.60/70, this suggests a measured move towards 83.60/70 once initiated. Near-term resistance comes in at 79.15/20 (200-DMA). Price action to remain range bound as long as advances are capped by 80.60/70. On the hourly charts, it appears a Rounded Bottom is forming (yesterday was the highest exchange rate since July 20), and we are thus biased higher for now.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (August 15, 2012)

EURUSD: Yesterday I wrote “more sideways price action in the EURUSD as the 20-DMA provided support today; though the rally off of the July 24 low appears to be corrective in nature, with three waves evident from the bottom (A-B-C correction). This suggests that further downside is likely; in our opinion, this translates to one more new low near the 2010 low of 1.1875 before the start of the next major bull leg. A drop towards 1.1695-1.1875 remains likely by mid-September. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2310/30, 1.2400/05, and 1.2440/45. Daily support comes in at 1.2200/20 and 1.2155/70. The Inverse Head & Shoulders (Head at 1.2040/45, Neckline at 1.2400/05, Measured Move 1.2750/60) remains a potential outcome.”

EUR-JPY Intraday Technical Analysis (August 13, 2012)

As we predicted on Friday, there was a violent decline and the spot broke its intermediate support at 96.10 and accelerated to the lower limit of its medium term bullish channel to 95.80. It is testing now these levels suggesting a rebound. However, a break through these levels will release a good potential and initiate a violent bearish channel.

Technical indicators do not provide clear signals but approach oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Moreover, until the support is not broken, the hypothesis of a rebound is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

We can consider two scenarios: the first one is to buy on the level of 95.80 with the 1st objective at 96.40. The second one is a “sell stop” and sell as soon as the spot rate is broken through its support at 95.80 with the 1st objective at 95.20.

GOLD Intraday Technical Analysis (August 13, 2012)

On Friday the gold broke the upper limit of its medium term bearish channel leading to acceleration. A pull back on these levels is expected before a resumption of bullish trend. However, a break of these levels will invalidate this scenario and initiate a violent bearish movement.

Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but until the support is not broken, the hypothesis of a pull back is most likely. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term. We can refer the increase which was made on August 10 at the exit of the channel giving us a target of 1,638.

According to previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1,618 with the 1st objective at 1,630 and then at 1,638. A breakthrough 1,615 will alter this scenario.